Grace Automotive 2026-10-03T18:09:04+01:00 Alex Georgianna https://graceauto.co.uk A Clearer Perspective on BEV Uptake Alex Georgianna https://graceauto.co.uk/a-clearer-perspective-on-bev-uptake.html 2026-10-03T18:09:04+01:00 BEV penetration of new car registrations grew to 28% in June 2026, further validating the efficacy of UK policy and comparable EU policies in predictably driving BEV uptake across the continent. However, increasingly higher hurdle rates in the ZEV Mandate place increasingly greater pressure on manufacturers preserving their access to the UK market.

In looking at the chart below, a couple of observations jump off the page:

  • Persistent growth in the number of new cars registered since the Summer of 2022 indicates that drivers continue to reverse the "stretching" of their vehicles' useful lives that resulted from a post pandemic scarcity in new car availability.

  • Burdened by UK regulation, manufacturers have consistently increased the penetration of BEV within their new car sales to roughly 30% last month and 25% through the first half of 2026.

For the foreseeable future, the market should continue to grow new car registrations (securing both the "style" preference of UK drivers and achievement of more economical holding/running cost of optimised fleet age) and manufacturers should continue to increase penetration of BEV in satisfaction of the ZEV Mandate.

A Closer Look at the Numbers

Again, a few observations jump off of the table below:

  • By 2025, observed uptake of new BEV cars has increased over 40% to 24% since the 2023, the year prior to inception of the ZEV Mandate.

  • While observed uptake of 20% and 24% fell just short of the Mandated trajectories of 22% and 28% in 2024 and 2025, "flexibilities" accommodated in the Mandate compel a full repayment of these 130,000 "borrowed" BEV sales by 2030 (with very little impact on the pace by which BEV penetrate the UK's parc of registered cars).

  • The first half of 2026 continues to demonstrate predictably growing penetration of BEV. Representing 25% of all new car registrations, H1 penetration is up 16% over prior year.

Increasingly Higher Hurdles

From the 28% Mandated trajectory last year (against which manufacturers achieved 24%), the 2026 target rises all the way to 33%. Again, some observations jump off the chart:

  • The over 1.1 million new cars registered in H1 2026 is the largest total since H1 2019 and represents 9% YOY growth.
  • The 285 thousand BEV registered in H1 2026 was a record high, but actually reflects lower penetration than the previous 6 months as a function of the higher total new registration figure.
  • From that 25% penetration through the first half of 2026, new BEV registrations through the next 6 months will have to approach 450 thousand (penetration of about 40%) to reach the full-year Mandated target of 33%.

Conclusion

None of this is new. The headline of the ZEV Mandate has always been a limitation on sales of non-zero emitting vehicles to a total ban by 2035. However, en route to that ban, this 33% target for 2026 will be tough. From less than 50 thousand BEV through the first six months, average monthly BEV sales will need to hover around 75 thousand through the end of the year.

Of course, this isn't yet "do or die" for auto manufacturers striving to maintain their access to the UK and European markets. Mandated flexibilities still accommodate a limited amount of shortfall in BEV sales through 2030 and because related borrowing of non-ZEV allowances must be fully repaid by 2030, these shortfalls don't have a massive impact on the rate by which BEV counts continue to grow within the parc of registered cars on UK roads.

While the UK and EU have proven so far to be very effective in driving new BEV registrations, there will continue to be friction with manufacturers, financiers and drivers as the hurdlies become increasingly more challenging.

]]> What Demonstrated EV Adoption Indicates for the Future of Investment in EV Charging Alex Georgianna https://graceauto.co.uk/what-demonstrated-ev-adoption-indicates-for-the-future-of-investment-in-ev-charging.html 2026-10-03T17:44:02+01:00

In advising investors on opportunities in EV charging, most conversations still start with speculation as to whether governments can "hold the line" on their EV-related policies. However, a quick look at the data indicates the effectiveness with which EU and UK policy is already driving us beyond an irreversible inflection point to faster and more predictable growth in:

  • Sales of battery electric cars & vans (BEV), 
  • The penetration of BEV within our national vehicle fleets and 
  • The demand of those BEV drivers for energy from the public charging network.

Market Evidence

Through the 4 successive 12-month periods ending in June of this year, data from the European Automobile Manufacturers'​ Association (ACEA) indicates a significant uptick in BEV uptake that directly relates to implementation of the UK's ZEV Mandate for 2024 and the EU's CAFE regulation one year thereafter.

Focus on UK Policy and Mandated Predictable Growth

Here in the UK, while representative bodies like the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) continue to lobby for delays in policy implementation, anecdotal evidence indicates both government commitment and market inevitability:

Government Commitment - In response to its 2025 public consultation on implementation of the ZEV Mandate, Government progressively adopted certain "flexibilities" that accomodate manufacturer compliance while preserving policy objectives. There is very little reason to believe that government response to the 2nd consultation, which is scheduled within the Mandate itself for later this year, will result in a radical alteration of terms.

Market Inevitability - At 11% share, the UK is an integral part of the pan-European vehicle market, which vies with North America for second place after global behemoth China. Though implemented somewhat differently, UK and EU policies both mandate accelerating BEV uptake to a total ban on non-ZEV saldes by 2035. Because manufacturers must plan their production to retain access to the regulated market, unilateral UK action to delay the its Mandate would have little impact on supply of non-ZEV vehicles.

Comprised largely of consumer incentives and supplier quotas in an accelerating "trajectory", the UK's ZEV Mandate is pushing us beyond an inflection point towards BEV penetration of all registered cars on UK roads to nearly 20% by 2030 and over 40% by 2035.

Conclusion

These observations drive a compelling logic trail:

  • Appetite for investment opportunities in the public EV charging network reflects investors perspective on cash flows to be derived from serving an expanding corps of EV drivers.
  • Growth in energy demand of those drivers from the public charging network is a function of government mandated growth in BEV penetration of new car & van sales.
  • Given the demonstrated effectiveness of both government policy and of government's maintenance of their policy, projection of demand isn't speculation as to the vagaries of consumer appetite. Rather, it's a mathematical extrapolation of government policy that has so far proven "effective".

Not only is the die cast on our EV transition, but government mandate indicates the value of each throw of that die.

 
]]> The Development and Funding of our Public EV Charging Network Alex Georgianna https://graceauto.co.uk/the-development-and-funding-of-our-public-ev-charging-network.html 2026-10-01T15:38:50+01:00 UK and EU policies are proving highly effective in driving the uptake of electric vehicles.  These policies are pushing us past an inflection point from which we are seeing far faster and more predictable growth in EV-related energy demand.
]]>